How Pakistan’s solar boom is shielding it from worst of Iran war crisis

Dasht, Balochistan, Pakistan – Karim Baksh bends down to a narrow channel of water, guiding it with his hands through shallow mud channels towards a row of ripening watermelons growing.

In Dasht, a remote village in the southern part of Balochistan, geographically Pakistan’s largest province, Baksh’s crops for years depended on a diesel-powered pump that drew water from the ground to irrigate his land.

That changed after Russia’s full-fledged invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which set off a surge in fuel prices, making it difficult for him to buy expensive diesel for his daily use. “It became impossible for me to run the pump on diesel daily,” he said.

With little water, his watermelons started to suffer. In some seasons, he reduced the land he cultivated. “If there is no water, there is no crop. And if there is no crop, there is no money,” he added.

Then, in 2023, he made a decision that at the time seemed risky: He borrowed 300,000 Pakistani rupees ($1,075) from relatives and friends and installed a row of solar panels next to his field.

Three years later, that gamble is paying off.

Amid the US-Israel war on Iran, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – through which 20 percent of oil and gas passes during peacetime – energy prices have soared around the world.

But Baksh isn’t worried. Under the scorching sun of Dasht, where temperatures rise as high as 51 degrees Celsius (124 degrees Fahrenheit) in peak summer, his pump runs without diesel, and Baksh can irrigate his watermelons uninterrupted.

“Now, I don’t care if the prices of diesel increase,” he says, proudly pointing to the sun above. “As long as there is this sun, I can grow my watermelons.”

Farmer Karim Baksh holds freshly harvested watermelons at his farm in Dasht, Balochistan, Pakistan [Zeeshan Nasir/ Al Jazeera]

A vulnerability and a shield

Baksh’s story underscores both a much larger vulnerability that Pakistan has faced – and continues to face – and the unlikely gains that could shield the country of 250 million people from some of the worst effects of the war on Iran.

Pakistan’s energy systems remain highly tied to global supply routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz: Eighty percent of the country’s oil imports pass through the narrow but critical maritime chokepoint between Iran and Oman, while 99 percent of its LNG is sourced from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

A recent report by the Council on Foreign Relations states that Pakistan could face severe energy strain if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for the next few months. Pakistan has limited storage capacity. A shortage of gas supplies to power plants and energy-intensive industries could quickly translate into high power outages, factory shutdowns and impacts on public services, transport and households.

But a quiet transformation that has unfolded on Pakistan’s rooftops and farmlands in recent years promises to partly insulate it from the crisis that the world is bracing for.

Dozens of solar panels are changing how energy is produced and used, cushioning Pakistan a little against global energy disruptions.

A recent study by Renewables First and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air highlights this shift. Since 2018, Pakistan’s rooftop solar boom has helped the country save more than $12bn in fuel imports. At current market prices, this would also help the country save about $6.3bn during this year.

This transition hasn’t been built on a single national plan. Instead, it is the result of millions of individuals – farmers switching from diesel, businesses and households seeking reliable power – making a change.

The solar share in the country’s energy mix has increased from 2.9 percent in 2020 to a whopping 32.3 percent in 2025, according to EMBER, an independent think tank.

Rabia Babar, an energy data manager at Renewables First, points out that this has helped reduce oil imports. “Pakistan’s solar revolution wasn’t planned in Islamabad – it was built on rooftops,” she says. “As tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain high, those panels are proving to be one of the country’s most effective energy security strategies.”

In larger cities like Lahore or Karachi, rooftop solar panels are a common sight. For many middle-class families, the decision to opt for solarisation can be economic and practical. They can typically recover the installation costs in a few years. The electricity they get from the panels is then free. Even better, they can feed extra solar electricity back to the national grid and earn from it.

Farmer Karim Baksh stands in his watermelon field in Dasht, Balochistan, Pakistan [Zeeshan Nasir/ Al Jazeera]

An unequal solution

According to the Gallup Pakistan Survey conducted in 2023, approximately 15 percent – roughly 4 million – of households in Pakistan used solar panels in some form.

By 2025, that number had risen even further: A household survey conducted by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics showed that 25 percent of households now use solar power in some form.

Of those, per government data, the number of households with net-metering has crossed more than 280,000 consumers in the country and is sharply increasing annually. Net metering allows families who generate extra solar power to send it back to the grid in exchange for credits that they can use when they need non-solar power.

But analysts say it is mostly upper-middle-class and upper-class Pakistanis who are benefitting. The upfront costs of installing solar systems can range from several hundred thousand to more than a million rupees, depending on the system size and batteries. Poorer Pakistanis cannot afford that cost.

Once installed, the electricity bills of consumers suddenly drop. Commercial and industrial users are major beneficiaries, installing solar systems to also shield themselves from power outages. Lower electricity costs make the industries more competitive internationally, especially for export-oriented ones.

Several farmers in Balochistan and Punjab who use solar-powered tube wells for irrigation get a reliable water supply and avoid fluctuating diesel prices. In rural areas, where electricity supply is erratic, solar power has become a source of survival rather than a luxury.

But poorer people in urban and rural Pakistan risk getting left behind.

Further, net-metering users use electricity from the grid at night or when it is not sunny, but do not pay many fixed costs associated with the nation’s power system. In effect, that means that non-solar users – including many poor Pakistanis – subsidise the limited use of the national grid by solar consumers.

Reports suggest that net-metering has already shifted a financial burden of 159 billion rupees ($570m) onto grid consumers, which could rise in the future in significant proportions.

As a result, experts fear that Pakistan is producing a two-tier energy system – one for solar users and the other for everyone else.

Men use a cot to salvage belongings, including a solar panel, from their flooded home, in Jaffarabad, Pakistan, September 5, 2022. Some made rescuing their solar panel a priority as they fled their homes in the face of the rising floods, wading with their panel through stagnant water [Fareed Khan/ AP Photo]

The China factor

Most of Pakistan’s solar panels are imported from China, which controls 80 percent of the industry’s global solar supply chain and produces a large number of solar wafers, cells and panels used globally, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Chinese lithium-ion batteries are simultaneously entering Pakistan’s market. These batteries store electricity during the day to be used at night. With decreasing prices of Chinese lithium-ion batteries, more people are installing solar panels coupled with batteries, which reduces their dependence on the national grid even more.

In Pakistan, this dependence is predominantly visible. Solar imports, primarily from China, collectively produced below 1GW in 2018. In early 2026, this grew to a staggering 51GW, making Pakistan one of the fastest-growing solar markets globally.

“Pakistan’s solar boom isn’t the story of Pakistan. It is also a China story,” says an electrical engineer at the University of Turbat, speaking on condition of anonymity because he is not authorised to speak to the media. “These cheap Chinese solar panels are changing the renewable energy sector around the developing countries.”

The prices of Chinese solar panels have decreased substantially over the past decade due to huge production and global competition. This oversupply has pushed prices down, especially since 2018.

In the early 2010s, the price of solar panels per watt was between 100 rupees ($0.35)  and 120 rupees ($0.42) per watt. This has now fallen to about 30 rupees ($0.10) per watt. A home solar system of 3KW typically costs about 450,000 rupees ($1,610), while larger commercial systems cost up to 2,200,000 rupees ($7,874).

In Pakistan, this lower cost of solar modules coincided with a period of electricity shortage, rising tariffs and a spike in global oil prices following the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. This made solar energy a viable alternative for households, businesses and farmers who could afford the one-time investment.

The price of lithium-ion batteries, particularly from China, has also fallen, allowing households to even store electricity for night use and reduce their dependence on unreliable grid electricity. Prices fell by 20 percent in just 2024, according to the IEA.

But the University of Turbat engineer pointed out that Pakistan, while cutting its reliance on fuel imports, was building a new form of dependency. “Without manufacturing solar panels itself, Pakistan is falling into a new form of dependency – this time on imported technology rather than imported fuel.”

The government of Pakistan, meanwhile, has flip-flopped on its attitude towards solar power.

It introduced a net-metering policy in 2015 to promote renewable energy and allow people to sell electricity to the grid at about 25 rupees ($0.090) per unit. The government also removed some taxes on solar panel imports, which made solar systems cheaper. These policies helped the solar market grow quickly.

However, the government subsequently grew concerned about the financial impact on the power sector, as solar installations increased. Recently, the government reduced the buyback rate for new net-metering users to about 10 rupees ($0.036) per unit.

All of that is a small compromise for farmers like Baksh.

Back in Dasht, he prepares his watermelons for transport, loading them on pick-up cars and trucks bound for nearby markets in Turbat and Gwadar cities.

Fuel prices fluctuate, and the transport of these watermelons remains uncertain. But one part of his work is stable and isn’t dependent on global events.

He aspires to buy more solar panels, cultivate more watermelons the next season and send them to larger markets in Quetta and Karachi – cities that are farther away.

For him, at least, he says: “The water keeps flowing no matter what.”