India’s Assam and Kerala states hold legislative assembly elections

Voting also held in the federal territory of ​Puducherry, while West Bengal and Tamil Nadu will vote later this month.

Millions of ‌Indians have voted in local elections in two states and a federally-governed territory, kicking ⁠off four key ⁠contests scheduled this month as a test of support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Voting was held on Thursday in Assam and Kerala, along with the Union Territory of Puducherry, while West Bengal and Tamil Nadu will vote later this month.

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Results from all the elections are due on May 4.

As nearly 174 million voters headed to the polling stations to elect more than 290 legislators, Modi appealed to people to exercise their franchise in large numbers.

“I hope that the state’s youth and women voters participate enthusiastically and make this election a celebration of democracy and public duty,” Modi said in a post on X.

State elections do not directly affect the stability of India’s federal government, but are closely watched as a test of voter sentiment towards the ruling ⁠coalition.

A BJP-led alliance has ruled the northeastern state of Assam for two successive terms and is expected to retain power, according to public opinion platform Vote Vibe.

In its campaign, the right-wing BJP targeted millions of mainly Bengali-origin Muslims who migrated to Assam in waves – most during British rule, which ended in 1947 – from East Bengal (modern Bangladesh).

The BJP did not field any Muslim candidate in Assam, where the community constitutes more than 34 percent of the state’s population.

In the southern state of Kerala, parties opposed to the BJP are set to win. Power in Kerala has traditionally alternated between alliances led by the Indian National Congress and the communist parties.

Modi’s party has struggled to gain ground in the state, but has invested heavily to expand its presence.

In Puducherry, a small federal territory, the BJP is relying on a coalition with a regional party to strengthen its position.

The most keenly watched – and also the most contentious – of the upcoming electoral contests is West Bengal, where the regional Trinamool Congress party has been in power for three consecutive terms.

Modi’s party has never governed West Bengal, where allegations of irregularities in the revision of electoral rolls have intensified the political tensions.

Millions of voters – most of them Muslims – have been deleted from voter rolls during ⁠a controversial revision exercise. Opposition parties say the exercise by election officials, called the Special Intensive Revision, particularly targeted the minority Muslim voters.

Similar allegations were also made in other Indian states that recently went to the polls. The Election Commission of India has denied the allegations, saying the exercise eliminated dead, duplicate and fake voters from the electoral roll.

The Hindu majoritarian BJP has never ruled West Bengal, but says it wants to win to curb – like Assam – the “⁠illegal” immigration from neighbouring Muslim-majority Bangladesh.

In Tamil Nadu, a coalition that includes the BJP is expected to mount a close challenge ⁠against a ruling regional party, Vote Vibe said.

The outcome of elections this month could show whether Modi’s party can extend its dominance by making inroads into opposition strongholds. A strong showing would also bolster his federal government, as the 2024 national election forced his ruling party to rely on regional allies to form the government.

The elections are also crucial for the opposition parties seeking to build a sustained challenge to the BJP’s dominance across the country.